The power of being a Music Industry Optimist [Jesse Kirshbaum]

Explore the plentiful ways the music industry has bounced back, with streaming, AI, artist-led brands driving growth, new tech, and more. Explore the power of being a music industry optimist.

The power of being a Music Industry Optimist

by Jesse Kirshbaum, CO-Founder of Nue

Past

When I started in this business at the turn of the century, there was a very different landscape. Then, Napster happened, and for the decade that followed, it felt like the industry was being decimated by the digital revolution. There was very little opportunity and momentum outside of live music, which is why I ultimately decided to become an agent at the outset. In that phase of my career, I learned live brand strategy, how to rub sticks together to create heat, and all facets of the artist lens.

Surprisingly, the decade after that would be even more rocky. But now, despite all of the ills of the business and the world at large, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about music.

Present

Firstly, music consumption is up thanks to streaming. And while there is work to do on payouts, equity, and tech’s attitude toward music creators, music is more ubiquitous than ever as a result of the digital shift.

The big labels are making money hand over foot even as Indie music steadily takes market share. Profits are soaring again and the investments of the past decade have paid off. The music business is outperforming the NASDAQ and the DOW. For goodness sake, even vinyl is having another revival. Once the discussion of a TikTok ban subsides, there will be another big windfall for the labels.

There are also somehow fewer gatekeepers and more artists who more frequently own their masters and get more equitable deals. The algorithm on social has changed. It matters less how many followers you have, and more whether your songs connect.

The artist product business (Fenty, le FLEUR*, Rare Beauty, Cactus Jack) has empowered many as artists get savvier about creating their own brands and product extensions, taking a larger piece of the pie, and retaining their IP. Talk about a flywheel accelerating growth on every spoke of the artists brand.

The publishing business is also thriving as savvy pub dynasties create efficiencies and opportunities for their catalogs.

The live business, where I cut my teeth, is still doing fantastic. The big artists are packing stadiums night after night and breaking profit records. Taylor Swift is a billionaire and many more superstar tours are on the way for 2025. On the flip side, artist-led festivals are doing well (Flog Gnaw) as are niche festivals and residencies (Adele in Germany, ABBA’s Hologram, Cassidy in Vegas). As we look ahead, the technology for the live experience continues to improve (The Sphere, Cosm, The Intuit Dome). We are just getting started on how the live experience is being leveled up.

Additionally, music tech investments are on the rise. What used to be taboo is now hot-button, with an identifiable cast of music-tech all-stars to watch. We’re seeing culture forward companies go public and win. Reddit’s IPO was a smashing success in 2024, and I expect a lot more action in 2025.

AI is driving a new era of excitement and the rise of the amateur. There are big payouts coming to artists and rights holders, and so much innovation in the space leading to a whole new class of musician.

Then there’s musicals and film tie-ins. The musical Wicked releases this week starring Ariana Grande and is going to be a monster success. The marketing rollout has been brilliant, taking a page out of Barbie’s playbook. We are living through a defining era of blockbuster roll-outs with the help of smart brand partnerships (hint, hint…we can build these type of strategies).

New Wave

From where I sit, there is so much Blue Sky. Think for a second about the room for innovation and opportunity in:

• Artist-to-fan connection
• Livestream shopping
• Blockchain
• The global music economy (China, India, Afrobeats, Mexico to name a few)
• Livestreaming concert experiences
• Ticketing disruption
• Fan club disruption
• Collaborations with the sports industry

I’m just getting started, so stay tuned for the forecast issue at the top of 2025. It’s a crazy time, but there are crazy opportunities. As the world shifts again, let’s carve out our lanes and own our niches. That’s what we’re doing on the daily at Nue. We’ve seen the past, we’re living the present, and we’re staying ahead of the future!