Why Musicians Should Stop Wasting Time on Superfans

Marketing insights from Byron Sharp explain why musician should stop wasting time on superfans. Casual listeners drive lasting growth. Learn how top artists like Taylor Swift use this approach to expand their reach and impact.

by Mark Knight, Founder. of Major Labl Artist Club

When it comes to music marketing we’re stuck in the past. Our image of fans is centred on romantic images of the 70s ‘band-aids’ from films like Almost Famous. It’s time to snap out of the dream. Love it or hate it, the way we consume music has changed, and the data shows success is not driven by superfans.

Byron Sharp – How Brands Grow

Byron Sharp’s seminal book ‘How Brands Grow’ published in 2010 has become a marketeer’s bible. Sharp used data to challenge widely held industry beliefs about marketing effectiveness. In this article, we consider how Sharp’s principles of brand growth can equally apply to band growth, and whether changes to music consumption mean it’s time to rethink our approach to music marketing and fandom.

The context. Understanding music consumption

The IFPI’s Engaging with Music 2023 report examined how music listeners engaged with music across 26 of the world’s largest music markets. The report found an average of 20.7 hours were spent listening to music each week up from 20.1 hours in 2022. Respondents reported using 7+ different methods to engage with music. Unsurprisingly audio streaming (32%) was the most popular.

Subscription audio streaming is most popular among younger audiences. (62% 25-34 yrs old, vs 28% 55-64 yrs old). In the audio streaming landscape, Spotify remains dominant with a 31.7% global market share and 615m active monthly users including 239m paying subscribers. The Spotify catalogue currently contains over 100m tracks.

The shift from artists to songs

In the last 30 years, digital music access has largely replaced physical music ownership. The emergence of streaming services has changed our relationship with music. Gone are the days of queuing up outside Our Price to pick up a copy of a new album on launch day or popping into your local independent record shop to ask ‘What’s good?’. 

Neither does this generation study sleeve notes to discover the names of producers, collaborators and co-writers. Music today is largely consumed blind, on the phone, tucked away in their pocket, even remembering the order or names of tracks isn’t important. 

These changes have undoubtedly impacted our relationships with artists and changed fandom with a noticeable shift in focus from artists to songs.

Spotify data indicates that users listen to 30 to 100 times more individual tracks than artists each year. While this means more artists are reaching audiences, it’s becoming harder to cultivate loyal, repeat listeners. People are spreading their listening across a wider range of songs and artists.

If you’ve ever been surprised by the ‘Top’ songs in your Spotify Wrapped, it might be because the difference between your top 5 and top 100 streamed songs is just a few plays.

This brings us neatly back to Byron Sharp, his research concludes:

• Brands grow by reaching more buyers rather than by increasing loyalty.
• Increasing market penetration is crucial; most buyers are light users.
• Loyalty programs do not drive significant growth.

Growth from Penetration not loyalty

Could the same be true for music? While convention tells us the key to success is building and retaining loyal fans or fan clubs, now in the age of streaming, should our real focus for growth be recruiting the next listener?

Byron Sharp shows the potential gains from acquisition dwarf the potential gains from reducing defection. Or very simply it’s far easier for someone new to buy your product once than for the same person to buy it twice. 

Data from Coca-Cola highlights this point.  Whereby the average buyer is different from the typical buyer. This is because a few heavy users skewed the ‘average buyer’.  In reality, half of all Coke buyers purchase only one or two cans or bottles per year. Very few buyers purchase around the ‘average’ of 12 times annually.

This isn’t just a quirk of Coca-Cola, it’s clear all brands, have many light buyers who purchase infrequently. Despite occasional purchases, these buyers are so numerous that they significantly contribute to overall sales. From Coca-Cola’s perspective, a heavy buyer is defined as anyone who purchases three or more cans or bottles of Coke annually. Even for a large brand like Coca-Cola, the market is dominated by very light buyers.

The Secret to Taylor Swift’s Success

Now let’s bring it back to music. What if we imagine ‘Taylor Swift’ as the Coca-Cola of music,  the chart above could equally be applied to her. While the hardcore ‘Swifties’ represent the heavy buyers, her phenomenal success has ultimately been driven by ubiquitous penetration (light buyers). Most Spotify users have listened to her music at least once in the last 12 months. In this case, incremental reach, driven by one or two more streams is everything. 

As a music marketer, it’s important to understand Byron Sharp’s law of ‘Buyer Moderation’. His research finds a natural tendency for extreme consumer behaviour (both high and low) to regress toward the mean over time. IE Just because they are a super fan this year, doesn’t mean they will be a superfan next year.

Implications for music marketing:

1. Avoid Over-Focusing on Superfans: While it’s tempting to spend a disproportionate amount of time and energy on super-fans, expecting them to remain consistently loyal is unrealistic. Their engagement patterns are likely to moderate.
2. Focus on Acquisition and Reach: Artists should focus on reaching a broad set of customers (including light buyers and potential buyers) rather than assuming that existing heavy buyers will always remain so. This approach will enable you to replace existing superfans when their interest inevitably wanes.

Sources:

• The IFPI’s Engaging with Music 2023
• Ehrenberg Bass Institute / Byron Sharp – How Brands Grow
• Social Shepherd

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Words: Mark Knight