Spotify 2018 Outlook: 200M Users, 96M Paid, $400M Loss

[UPDATED] Spotify shared its quarterly and yearly outlook in an SEC Monday. Highlights included a prediction of 198-208 million active users including 92-96 million paid, by the end of 2018. But along with 30%+ user growth comes lossed of $286 -$410 million USD.

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Spotify First Quarter 2018 Financial Outlook

• Total Monthly Active Users (“MAU”): 168-171 million, up 28-31% Y/Y

• Total Premium Subscribers: 73-76 million, up 41-46% Y/Y

• Total Revenue:  €1.10-1.15 billion, up 22-27% Y/Y.  "We anticipate changes in foreign exchange rates will have a negative impact of approximately €95-105 million in the quarter 3."

• Gross Margin: 23-24%. "This includes a 60 bp benefit from a one-time estimated accrual adjustment associated with prior periods."

• Operating loss: €50-€80 million

Spotify Full Year 2018 Financial Outlook

• Total MAUs: 198-208 million, up 26-32% Y/Y

• Total Premium Subscriber2: 92-96 million, up 30-36% Y/Y

• Total Revenue:  €4.9-5.3 billion, up 20-30% Y/Y. "We anticipate changes in foreign exchange rates will have a negative impact of approximately €260-300 million for the full year."

• Gross Margin: 23-25%

• Operating loss: €230-330 million ($286 -$410 million USD). "This includes an estimated total cost for the direct listing of roughly €35-40 million which we expect to expense in Q2.

"This financial outlook assumes, among other things, that no additional business acquisitions, investments, restructurings, or legal settlements are concluded.